I ran the last twelve months of closings in the five cities I cover (San Clemente, Dana Point, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Beach and Aliso Viejo) against the sale before them. For each of the 2,409 homes that closed between October 1, 2025 and September 30, 2026, I looked up the previous closed sale of the same parcel in the listing record, which goes back to 1998. Here is what that says about who sells next.
First, how to read it. "No earlier sale on record" means I found no previous listed sale of that parcel since 1998. That includes homes bought off-market, homes that moved by transfer rather than sale, and homes held since before 1998. I am not calling any of them "owned since 1998", because the record does not say that.
How long homes went between sales
| Twelve months ending Sep 30, 2026 | Closings | Re-sold within 3 years | 3 to 10 years | Over 10 years | No earlier sale on record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laguna Niguel | 691 | 12.3% | 28.9% | 20.8% | 37.9% |
| San Clemente | 637 | 13.7% | 30.3% | 18.8% | 37.2% |
| Dana Point | 396 | 13.1% | 31.8% | 15.4% | 39.6% |
| Aliso Viejo | 364 | 6.6% | 34.9% | 28.0% | 30.5% |
| Laguna Beach | 321 | 12.1% | 22.4% | 15.9% | 49.5% |
Where I did find an earlier sale, the median gap was 8.5 years in Aliso Viejo, 6.9 in Laguna Niguel, 6.0 in San Clemente, 5.8 in Laguna Beach and 5.7 in Dana Point.
Two things stand out. On the coast, 12% to 14% of sales were re-sales within three years of the last one, about double Aliso Viejo's 6.6%. And half of Laguna Beach sales (49.5%) had no earlier sale on record, the most of the five.
Homes with no earlier sale on record are where trust and probate sales sit
This is the finding I would put in front of an agent who farms.
| Share of sales that were trust or probate | No earlier sale on record | Sold before |
|---|---|---|
| San Clemente | 26.2% | 4.8% |
| Dana Point | 27.4% | 7.1% |
| Laguna Niguel | 24.8% | 7.5% |
| Laguna Beach | 18.2% | 6.2% |
| Aliso Viejo | 16.2% | 5.5% |
In San Clemente, Dana Point and Laguna Niguel, a sale with no earlier sale on record was between three and five times as likely to be a trust or probate sale as one that had sold before. Laguna Beach and Aliso Viejo showed the same direction at about three times.
The trust and probate definition here is the same one I use on the city pages: any closing recorded with a trust or probate condition of sale. Across all five cities, 38.4% of the 2,409 sales had no earlier sale on record, and of those, 23.4% were trust or probate sales.
The homes that have gone longest without a recorded sale are the ones most likely to come to market through a trust.
Cash follows the same pattern, less sharply. In San Clemente 40.5% of sales with no earlier sale on record were all cash against 33.0% of those that had sold before. In Dana Point it was 48.4% against 44.8%, and in Laguna Beach 45.9% against 42.6%.
The pockets
These are the largest named subdivisions in each city. Sample sizes are small (15 to 40 sales each), so treat them as a place to look, not a forecast.
| Neighborhood | City | Sales | No earlier sale on record | Re-sold within 3 years | Trust or probate | Median years between sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Laguna | Laguna Beach | 40 | 55.0% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 8.9 |
| The Village | Laguna Beach | 34 | 47.1% | 20.6% | 2.9% | 3.4 |
| Woods Cove | Laguna Beach | 26 | 53.8% | 3.8% | 23.1% | 5.7 |
| Temple Hills | Laguna Beach | 22 | 72.7% | 0.0% | 13.6% | 7.1 |
| Niguel Hills | Laguna Niguel | 22 | 54.5% | 9.1% | 22.7% | 10.9 |
| Lake Park | Laguna Niguel | 16 | 68.8% | 0.0% | 6.3% | 12.5 |
| Monarch Bay Terrace | Dana Point | 20 | 35.0% | 25.0% | 30.0% | 7.9 |
| Shorecliffs | San Clemente | 15 | 46.7% | 13.3% | 26.7% | 4.6 |
| Vista Pacifica | San Clemente | 22 | 9.1% | 18.2% | 9.1% | 5.4 |
| Seagate Colony - Audubon | Aliso Viejo | 16 | 18.8% | 6.3% | 12.5% | 10.2 |
The pockets are not alike. In The Village in Laguna Beach, one in five sales was a re-sale within three years and the median gap was 3.4 years. In Temple Hills, 72.7% of sales had no earlier sale on record and none were re-sales within three years. Vista Pacifica in San Clemente is almost the reverse: only 9.1% had no earlier sale on record, because nearly every home there had changed hands on the record before.
What to do with this on your farm
- Farm the pockets where homes have gone longest without a recorded sale. In Temple Hills, Lake Park, North Laguna and Niguel Hills, more than half of recent sales had no earlier sale on record. That is who is likely to sell next, and in the San Clemente, Dana Point and Laguna Niguel data, those sales were far more likely to come through a trust.
- If your listing has no earlier sale on record, order title the day you take it. Check the vesting and whether it sits in a trust before you set the timeline. County-wide, 12.9% of closings ran past 45 days, and a trust or estate file is where the unexpected paperwork tends to be.
- In fast-turning pockets, expect repeat sellers. In The Village, Monarch Bay Terrace and Vista Pacifica, between 18% and 25% of sales were re-sales within three years of the previous one. A home you help sell there may come back to market sooner than you think.
The same numbers by city are on the city pages: San Clemente, Dana Point, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Beach and Aliso Viejo. For the county picture on timelines, see how long an Orange County escrow actually takes in 2026.
All figures are my own analysis of closed residential sales in these five cities for the twelve months ending September 30, 2026, pulled October 28, 2026. Previous sales are matched by parcel number to the earlier closed sale in the same record, which goes back to 1998. Nothing here is a title commitment or legal advice.
If you want the specifics for the pocket you farm (buyer origin, cash share, tenure, and who is statistically closest to selling next), that is what a Farming Forensics analysis is, and it is complimentary on your listings. Send me an address and I will run it.